uncertainty that really prevent people from making the investment decisions, the hiring decisions, the foreign direct investment decisions that would otherwise help growth the world over. >> pelley: if we cross the fiscal cliff, we go over the edge, do you think the united states would go back into recession? >> if it was not addressed very shortly, yes. >> pelley: and why are yo so certain of that? >> well, you just look at the numbers. that would entail a growth contraction of about 2% in a given year. so if you assume that the u.s. economy forecast growth next year is 2%, 2% minus 2% equals zero. you are pretty much at the recession stage. >> pelley: there are about 12.5 million americans who lost their jobs in the great recession. we have seen our economy in recession or stumbling along since late 2007. and a lot of americans just want to know when does this end. >> well, i would say that there is good news lurking out there. and in particular the fact that the housing market is picking up is, in our view, a clear sign that the situation is improving. when you see that the financial instit